Index Review: SYI & SPI

Internal working document · for review & curation — not for publication

Index Review: SYI (Yield) & SPI (Potential)

Full per-country values with the computation formulas, per-column provenance, and red review flags. July 2026.

SYI — Syria Yield Index

YIELD · 29 COUNTERPARTS · CURATED 2026-07-09

The formula (the code)

SYI = 0.832 × relief + 0.235 × agreements + 4.3 × ln(capital_realized_$M) + min(20, 0.6 × normalization_points)
normalization (lane 4, 2026-07-10) = Σ act_w (lift/suspend 5 · license 4 · sectoral 3 · unfreeze 3 · delist 2) × actor_w (US 3 · EU/UN 2.5 · UK 1.5 · others 1) — from the curated sanctions ledger; act = yield (decays), resulting state persists in SPI·A
capital = Σ deal_$ × execution_tier (discussed 0.15 · signed 0.50 · executed 1.00) · per-deal cap $25B · pipeline = signed-not-executed, reported separately, NOT counted in yield
relief rubric: T1 systemic ≥$500M → 35–45 · T2 $100–500M → 12–35 · T3 $20–100M → 5–12 · T4 <$20M / in-kind → 1–5 | decay: SYI_t = fresh + SYI_t−1 × e^−λ, λ = ln2/4 per quarter (half-life 1y, operative from issue 2)

The coefficients (0.832 / 0.235 / 4.3·ln; pipeline signal = 8.2·ln(pipeline_$M)) were reconstructed from the stored values and are now adopted as canonical, persisted in syi_compute.py — any lane edit + re-run reproduces the index. Relief is weighted points; agreements is a type-weighted count; capital is in US$ millions.

Curation log (applied 2026-07-09) & remaining flags

  • ✅ Normalization lane added (2026-07-10): 14 curated acts across 9 actors from the sanctions ledger → US +20 (SYI 59.5, #1), EU 51.2, Japan +3 (22.1, returns to Gem), Switzerland +6. One flagged item: the 2025-12-19 US row is an echo (UNHCR praising the lift) — accepted at day-one curation, absorbed by the 20-cap; queue for next ledger pass. Pending acts (Caesar repeal bill, EU review clauses) = future signed-not-statutory signal.
  • ✅ Norway dual-key merged: relief (Norway) + agreements (النرويج) → one row, SYI 5.3.
  • ✅ Capital magnitudes re-based on archive evidence (rows marked “curated”): UAE 125,002→50 realized / 800 pipeline (DP World Tartus $800M signed; Habtoor $2.5M) · Germany 3,856→140 / 330 ($400B reconstruction-cost contamination removed; €80M 2025 humanitarian + €15M UNICEF + €35M UNDP delivered; €300M Brussels pledge → pipeline) · Japan 3,006→12 (UNDP Jandar $12.4M; phantom pipeline zeroed) · Italy 2,733→74 (€68M allocation) · Qatar 7,576→1,200 / 24,500 (QFFD $700M delivering; $7B energy + $4B airport + $14B MoUs → pipeline) · Egypt 364→0 (reverse attribution: “Syrian investments IN Egypt”).
  • ✅ Coverage extended 26→29: Iraq (220,000-ton wheat grant + air/water agreements, SYI 7.4) · Kuwait (returnee cash program + Al-Maha media city, 4.0) · Oman (air-transport agreement, 0.7) · Morocco (2 postal MoUs, 0.7). Posture ripples: Japan gem→opportunity (its gem status rode the phantom $3B) · Egypt anchor→opportunity-convert (engagement-heavy, yield-light).
  • ✅ Saudi pipeline curated 128 → 6,530: Damascus Syrian-Saudi Investment Forum (July 2025) — 47 agreements/MoUs at 24B SAR ≈ $6.4B (energy, industry, infrastructure, real estate incl. Abyat’s $2B housing, telecom) → pipeline signal 39.8 → 72.0. Realized stays 55 (World Bank arrears share + misc executed).
  • ✅ Türkiye lanes confirmed kept after evidence re-check: Nakkaş gas-supply agreement (1.6M m³/day) executing, grid-interconnection work, consortium share — realized $1,093M reads conservative; no contradicting posts.
  • ✅ Relief-lane rubric documented (retro-consistent with every stored value): T1 systemic donor ≥$500M → 35–45 (US 42, EU 37.5) · T2 major $100–500M → 12–35 (UN 12.5) · T3 significant $20–100M → 5–12 (Switzerland 10, Iraq 8) · T4 targeted/in-kind <$20M → 1–5 (Japan/Australia/Canada 5, Kuwait 4, Norway/UK/Ukraine 3).
  • ✅ Time-decay parameterized: λ = ln2/4 per quarter (half-life one year); issue 1 = single window (uniform decay by construction) → operative from issue 2. EU & UN entity rows: closed by design (outside the 194-state ranking).

Click any column header to sort. Red rows = review flags. “Recomputed” applies the reconstructed formula above, for comparison against the stored value.

SPI — Syria Potential Index

POTENTIAL · 194 STATES

The formula (the code)

SPI = Capacity × Activatability | Capacity = 0.26·Ec + 0.22·Po + 0.15·Dv + 0.14·Rf + 0.13·Se + 0.10·Cu
Po += 0.30 × pivot, pivot = 100 · (0.55 · ln(pop)/ln(1450M) + 0.45 · regional_anchor) [cap 100]
A = presence(Damascus) × sanctions × posture [A-principle: partner willingness only — Syria-side strategic risk is NEVER encoded here]
Readiness R (separate axis) = Ambassador 2.0 · Envoy 1.5 · Chargé 1.0 · Consul 0.6 · Vacant 0.3 · +0.15 per consulate (cap 1.0)

A-principle: willingness measures the partner’s observable openness only — Syria’s own strategic risk in engaging is a policy judgment, never a discount on the prize. Readiness R is a separate axis (the mission/consulate ladder above) = the cost of activation, deliberately NOT multiplied into SPI.

REALR GDP/SWF, refugee stocks (UNHCR + UN DESA 2024), missions (official MFA roster), UNGA votes, population (World Bank, verified)KNOWLEDGE-ENCODED, RANK-VERIFIEDK Dv/Se/Cu — confirmed vs SIPRI ρ.85 / GHS ρ.77 / DAC ρ.61 / UN-DESA ρ.94; Brand Finance gated (sole unverified sub-input)ANALYST-SETA willingness A (♦ corrections) & regional anchors (regional_anchors.json)

Review flags

  • ✅ Ukraine A corrected 0.32→0.50 (restored relations + FM visit + grain) → SPI 11.4; grain deliveries also added to the SYI relief lane (3 pts → SYI 2.5).
  • ✅ Malaysia A corrected 0.34→0.55 (Anwar–Sharaa call pledging reconstruction investment; honorary consul-general in Damascus; OIC-summit advocacy; Mercy Malaysia in the health sector) → SPI 18.5, global opportunity.
  • ✅ Ivory Coast regional-anchor fixed 0.1→0.6 (Abidjan hosts the African Development Bank) → SPI 9.2, regional opportunity. Lane ks: Africa 4→6 (adds Ivory Coast, Tanzania); Arab lane added k=2 (Sudan 14.9, Yemen 14.6 — Yemen convert-type at SDSI 138).
  • ✅ Willingness corrections — closed as the standing A-principle record: Russia 0.45 · Venezuela 0.30 · Belarus 0.30 · Cuba 0.30 · Ukraine 0.50 · Malaysia 0.55 — each evidence-cited, marked ♦ in the table.
  • ✅ Watchlist band — retired, overtaken by the lanes: all four band members were promoted (Sudan & Yemen via the Arab lane; Armenia & Kazakhstan via Central Asia). Sole residual: Hungary 14.0 — tracked on its country page, not as a band of one.
  • ✅ Population VERIFIED against the World Bank (SP.POP.TOTL, latest year, fetched 2026-07-09; 194/194 matched via ISO2): zero states moved SPI ≥ 0.15 — encoded values confirmed; provenance upgraded K→R. Persisted: wb_population.json + spi_pivot_verify.py (re-runnable). Taiwan & Holy See not in WB → encoded values kept, flagged. Regional anchors persisted as regional_anchors.json (80 scored + documented scale + default 0.1) — analyst-set by nature, now on the record.
  • ✅ Dv/Se/Cu VERIFIED against source datasets (2026-07-10, rank-consistency; report in dv_se_cu_verification.json): Se vs SIPRI Milex 2025 (Constant-2024 US$, n=146): ρ = 0.847 — confirmed; high-milex/moderate-Se cases (India, Japan, Poland…) are by design (Se is Syria-relevance-weighted, not raw spend). Dv vs GHS Index 2021 (n=179): ρ = 0.77; Dv vs OECD DAC donor totals (n=40): ρ = 0.61 (one wiki parse artifact noted) — confirmed. Rf/diaspora vs UN DESA migrant stock 2024 (Syrian-born by host): ρ = 0.944 — strongly confirmed (Türkiye 1.71M · Jordan 803k · Lebanon 406k · Germany 347k · Saudi 210k); Brazil/Argentina absent from Syrian-born hosts = validates the descent-vs-refugee design. Brand Finance Soft Power 2025: GATED (JS-only site, no mirror table) — spot-check only; the sole remaining unverified sub-input. No score corrections warranted.
  • ✅ Readiness R rebuilt from the ministry’s OFFICIAL roster (mofaex.gov.sy/diplomatic-missions, fetched 2026-07-10 → syrian_missions_official.json): 44 embassies + 7 consulates-general (Dubai, Bonn, Istanbul, Rome, Geneva + news-verified Gaziantep, Jeddah) — 46 states corrected from the news-derived floor (the news list had caught only ~8 of 44 embassies; Nigeria, South Africa, Chile, Malaysia, most of Europe now show real activation infrastructure). Ladder: official embassy 0.85 · consulate-only 0.60 · +0.15 per consulate · cap 1.0 · floor 0.45. Readiness is a separate axis — SPI values unchanged.

♦ = analyst-corrected willingness. The six categories are 0–100; pivot = the demographic/regional-weight uplift inside Po. “+2c” on Willingness = consulates counted into Readiness.